What is in it for investors?

VOW offers investors a unique chance to back a scalable, impact-driven retail concept with robust financials and strategic upside. The model delivers a DCFR of 47%, a Net Present Value of €1.21M (at a 25% discount rate), and reaches positive EBITDA in year 4. By year 10, a valuation based on a 5.6x EBITDA multiple yields an estimated enterprise value of €21.8M. But there’s more: VOW is also laying the groundwork for a potential spin-off in retail technology. A venture focused on dematerializing checkout to radically improve customer experience and sustainability. While this isn’t factored into current projections, it could unlock an entirely new revenue stream and impact pathway. For investors seeking solid returns with the potential for exponential upside, and a chance to drive real systemic change, VOW is a smart, future-forward investment.

Project phasing

• Phase 1 – Proof of Concept (Q4 2025 to Q1 2026) focuses on validating the enthusiastic early interest received and fine-tuning the in-store experience. Through a pop-up store, VOW will engage customers directly, test adoption of the scan & go app, and gather detailed satisfaction insights to ensure VOW does not just meeting expectations, but creates real joy. 
• Phase 2 – Pilot Phase (2026–2028) will extend the concept to various regions and location types. This diversity allows to refine VOW's location strategy and operational model while building a solid track record of performance in different market conditions. 
• Phase 3 – Pilot Evaluation and Scaling Preparation (2029-2030) will take place as the pilot stores reach maturity in their second and third years. During this phase, VOW will evaluate results, draw lessons, and build the operational and financial foundations needed for expansion. 
•  Phase 4 – Scaling Up (2031-2035) will launch a broader rollout, leveraging insights from the earlier phases to ensure efficient, well-targeted, and high-impact growth. 

Projected P&L

Projected Balance Sheet

• Fixed Assets:
  By 2035, tangible fixed assets reach nearly €6.1M (net of depreciation), reflecting the scaling of the physical store network and infrastructure. Intangible assets grow to over €800K, primarily reflecting brand, software, and development investments, with appropriate depreciation applied over time.
  Depreciation is accounted for prudently, ensuring accurate representation of asset value and preserving balance sheet integrity.
  
  
• Current Assets:
  The inventory buildup—across pop-up stores, physical stores, and e-commerce—tracks expansion, reaching a combined €7.3M by 2035.
  Cash & cash equivalents peak above €6M in 2032, reflecting capital inflows and operating cash flows during and after scale-up, before normalizing to €1.6M in 2035 as investments stabilize and profitability strengthens.

Equity & Capitalization

• Initial capital injections bring equity from €300K in 2025 to €7.3M by 2032, supporting expansion without immediate reliance on debt.
• Accumulated losses reflect the natural progression of a scaling retail venture, reaching a low of €-2.4M in 2032, before recovering to €-354K by 2035 in line with profitability milestones.

• Long-term debt is introduced modestly in 2028, with total financial debt peaking at €4.8M in 2032 to support scale-up operations. By 2035, this figure is reduced to €2.7M, indicating repayment capacity and a conservative gearing trajectory.
• Short-term liabilities (suppliers, payroll, taxes) scale proportionally with operations, peaking around €1.3M in 2034.
• No provisions or deferred taxes are assumed, simplifying the structure but potentially leaving room for future optimization.
  
  

Solvency & Financial Soundness

• Debt-to-equity ratio remains below 1.0, signaling a balanced use of leverage.
• The cash position remains healthy despite significant CAPEX, ensuring liquidity.
• The improving net asset position from 2032 onward highlights the inflection point where operations begin to self-sustain and generate retained value.
  
  

Projected Cash holdings

• Early Phase Liquidity (2025–2026):
  The company starts with a modest cash position of €191K in 2025, sufficient for proof-of-concept operations. By 2026, it rises to €1.18M, driven by the first external capital injection and tight cost controls.
  
  
• Pilot & Build-Out (2027–2031):
  As the pilot expands, cash reserves fluctuate between €300K and €1.5M, absorbing initial operating losses while supporting investments in inventory and fixed assets. The cash position remains positive throughout, showing that capital is being deployed prudently to support scaling without liquidity stress.
  
  
• Scaling Surge (2032):
  In 2032, VOW’s cash position peaks at €6.3M, a strategic buildup fueled by major funding rounds or operational inflows ahead of rapid network expansion. This buffer provides the flexibility to manage the heightened working capital needs, reduce financing risk, and maintain supplier confidence during the most capital-intensive phase.
  
  
• Stabilization (2033–2035):
  As profitability sets in, cash holdings normalize to €4.1M in 2033, then taper to €805K in 2034, and stabilize around €1.6M in 2035. This signals a return to regular operating cycles and a more mature cash management approach as the business becomes self-funding.

Key Profitability Drivers, Benchmarks & Sensitivities 

Revenue per Store:
VOW targets an average revenue of €1 million per store, aiming to match the revenue per square meter performance of market leader Kruidvat. While Kruidvat operates a broad footprint, including many lower-traffic locations in smaller towns, VOW’s expansion strategy focuses exclusively on prime, high-traffic AAA locations in major cities—positioning it for higher productivity and customer density per square meter.

E-commerce Penetration:
VOW anticipates 20% of total revenue to be generated online. This significantly exceeds the industry average of 9%, which is skewed downward by the inclusion of large grocery chains. A more relevant benchmark is Yves Rocher, which leverages its mail-order heritage to achieve over 50% e-commerce penetration. VOW’s strong digital-native brand positioning and scan & go experience are expected to drive robust online and hybrid (offline-to-online) sales.

Gross Margin:
The business model is built on a validated starting gross margin of 40%, based on the initial procurement of 300 references. VOW plans to improve this margin progressively to 50% over time, driven by a more optimized product mix and economies of scale.

Theft Rate Assumption:
Given the self-checkout model, a extremely conservative theft rate of 5% has been incorporated into the financial model. While retail experts consider a 3% loss already high and traditional convenience formats such as petrol stations operate below 1%, this conservative approach ensures prudence in early-stage planning. Mitigation strategies will be implemented from the outset to minimize shrinkage, with the goal of aligning actual performance closer to industry best practices.

The following figure summarizes the sensitivity of the profitability of the project to variation of these assumptions.